[SMM Analysis] Ternary Market Demand Recovery Falls Short of Expectations

This week, ternary material prices edged slightly downward. From the raw material perspective, nickel sulfate posted modest declines, cobalt sulfate remained flat, and manganese sulfate saw slight increases. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices fluctuated with a weakening trend, registering small declines, which collectively drove a modest correction in ternary material prices. However, price volatility remained limited overall this week, with market prices continuing their recent stable trajectory and manufacturer quotations showing no significant changes. Some battery cell manufacturers took advantage of the relatively stable price window to conduct certain need-based restocking.

As the month-end procurement period approaches, despite continued supply tightness expectations on the raw material side, ternary market demand has yet to show meaningful recovery. Battery cell manufacturers' order fulfillment sentiment remains subdued, preventing raw material prices from gaining upward momentum. Some manufacturers have begun gradually initiating commercial term negotiations for second-quarter orders. Although cost pressures persist, payable increases are expected to face limited upside due to weak demand.

In the domestic EV battery market, performance remains relatively lackluster, impacted by the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives. The e-mobility and consumer battery segments have also failed to show significant improvement. Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts. On the export front, certain overseas customers increased their March offtake volumes, providing notable support to this month's overall production schedules. However, overseas orders are expected to see a substantial decline in April.